Who will win both the seats in Goa? Goans have participated in the 18th Lok Sabha. Being liberated late Goa joined the national elections in 1989 in the 9th Lok Sabha election. Soon after liberation, Goa did took part in the national democratic polity. The first two MPs of Goa who represented Goans in the parliament were nominated and not elected. What does this Lok Sabha elections have for Goans?
The national exit polls are giving both Congress and BJP one seat each in Goa. The national exit polls are being challenged in several quarters. The local press in Goa seems to be backing the BJP and is indicating that it is BJP that is in the driving seat and will win both the seats. The presence of RGP in the electoral contest has challenged us to factor in the damage that it has done to both Congress and BJP.
Congress in the north appeared to lack organizational strength in the north, while in the south Congress put its best foot forward along with its alliance partners. Some say that Congress suffered the late declaration of its candidates. Yet we cannot dismiss the Charisma of both candidates of Congress . Nationally it has been said that for the first time in India, the People are fighting the BJP. Congress has no money to fight these elections. There is no level playing field. Hence, the people have taken upon them to fight these elections in our country. Hence, the question is: Like the other people of India, did the people of Goa, were fighting the BJP? One could not see Goan visibly fighting the BJP in Goa. Hence, the seat in the south is on edge.
Those who say that BJP will grab both the seats seemed to forget that the existence of incumbency in the north when Shree Shripad Naik of BJP is seeking his sixth term as well as think that the issues centred around mining, price rise, joblessness do not exist on the ground. But these issues do matter. There are people who had directly called Mr Naik to responsibility during his on of his meetings.
Things appear a bit confusing because it is not clear how many votes will the former Congress MLAs in south Goa successfully transfer to the BJP. it appeared that these BJP MLAs did everything benefit the BJP. But it boils down to people and we cannot truly know whether the people who were strong Congress followers will change just because their MLA jumped ship.
In the same manner it is difficult to assess how much damage the RGP did to BJP in the north. There are significant opinion that indicates that in the north it simply a fight between BJP and RGP while in the south RGP is viewed more as a spoiler and can only be a distant third. Therefore, the real fight is thought to be between BJP and Congress in the south. The fact that Congress has wone the southern seat in many electoral hustings, Congress begins appears to be in the front line. But the fact that the percentage of voting being high in places like Curchorem and Sanguem makes the prospects of Congress appear weak. Yet the lead that Salcete and Mormugao will give to Congress keeps the BJP on the edge.
Goans have no history of being touched by an electoral waves that hit other parts of India. Hence, even if BJP wins two seats in Goa as indicated by the press it is simply limited to Goa . This victory of BJP does not tell us anything about the prospects of BJP in our country. But no one wins till the last vote in counted. Let us not count the chicken before they are hatched.
