Challenging Exit Polls

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Are exit poll weaponized? Are they simply producing an anchoring effect leading us to think everything from their cognitive bias. We need transparency concerning exit polls. Questions like ‘ What is model that is used? What is sample size ? Does the sample size represent the ground reality ? What is a male female ratio? ‘ has to be made public.

When the nature of the sample is made public , we can assess whether there is an under represtation of any feature present on the ground. Often the poor and women outnumber the rich and man respectively, in the voting process. The fact that most of them have kept their sampling process hidden , it appears that they are simply manufactured.

Besides, the method of gathering data also has several limitations. Face to face interaction is the best mode of data gathering but often the next best thing is to use a phone but it directly excludes all those who do not use phones. Those who use phone may also not be able handle the phone where one has to respond by pressing the buttons or numbers. Thus these limitations will certainly reflect in the ultimate result distorting them.

The numbers of almost all the exit pollsters are converging and they are favoring the ruling BJP. Does that means people’s issues like inflation , joblessness, safety of women and the fear of loss of democracy does not really exist ? Does that also mean that all Indians are happy and blindly huddle behind the BJP ?Given the diversity of our demography with caste and religious leanings and even hate playing vital role, the prediction of any election is very difficult.

The fact that almost every exit poll predict BJPs victory doubts are raised about the credibility of exit polls. This is why these exit polls are thought to doctored and manipulated . Opposition leader Rahul Gandhi has dumped them calling them Modi Media Polls. Even when the polstars claim that they have 90 % success rate, no one can be insulated from failure. The fact that mood of the people expressed in the social media is against the numbers of the Exit Polls also indicates the these exit polls are inaccurate.

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Hypocrisy is the tribute that vice pays to virtue.

- Fr Victor Ferrao